CF Industries expects global nitrogen supply demand balance to remain constructive near-term

HOUSTON (ICIS)–CF Industries said in its latest nitrogen fertilizer market outlook that in the near-term it expects the global supply-demand balance to remain constructive.

The producer highlighted in its earnings release that global pricing was supported in Q1 of 2025 by positive global demand, constrained availability due in part to natural gas shortages in Iran, and China’s continued restrictions on urea exports.

CF said there is anticipated strong demand from not only global corn stocks-to-use ratio reaching its lowest level since 2013, but because there is below average global inventories and challenging production economics in Europe.

Looking at North America, CF said there should be strong nitrogen demand during the spring application season due to favorable returns for corn compared to soybeans, which is driving higher planted corn acres in 2025.

The producer noted that the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported in March that growers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn this season.

For Brazil, the company expects the country will remain the largest urea import region, with imports projected to exceed 8 million tonnes, with this outlook supported by strong planted corn acreage and continued nominal domestic nitrogen production.

In India, there is less urea inventory with CF saying that lower-than-targeted domestic production and higher year on year urea sales pushed urea inventory levels down by approximately 35% compared to March 2024.

As a result, their management expects higher urea import requirements for the rest of this year to meet grower demand and replenish urea stocks.

Across Europe the producer is projecting that ammonia operating rates and overall domestic nitrogen product output will remain below historical averages over the long-term given the region’s status as the global marginal producer.

For China, CF said the ongoing urea export controls continue to limit availability from the country with minimal volumes concluded in Q1 of 2025.

The company feels that urea exports will not resume until the conclusion of China’s domestic spring application season at the earliest.

In Russia, urea exports are expected to increase 3% in 2025 due to the start-up of new urea granulation capacity and the willingness of certain countries to purchase Russian fertilizer, including the US and Brazil.

CF also is expecting that over the medium-term the significant energy cost differentials between North American producers and high-cost producers in Europe and Asia are expected to persist.

As a result, the global nitrogen cost structure would then remain supportive of strong margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers.

In the longer-term view CF is projecting that the global nitrogen supply demand balance will further tighten as global capacity growth over the next four years is forecasted to not keep pace with the expected rise in global demand.

Those needs are anticipated to have a growth rate of approximately 1.5% per year for traditional applications and see more new demand emerging for clean energy applications.

CF has a view that global production will remain constrained by poor margins for European ammonia producers and availability of natural gas in Egypt, Iran and Trinidad.